牛肉経済システムの解析と制御   :   System Analysis and Control of the Beef Economy 

作成者 松田, 友義
作成者の別表記 MATSUDA, Tomoyoshi
日本十進分類法 (NDC) 620
内容 To analyze economic systems like the beef economy, explicit attention must be paid to the interdependency of system factors, which is indispensable for a comprehensive investigation of the system. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the posibilities and effects of the price stabilization under the present beef import system. We assume that the beef econmy can be analized within a framework of the multipleinput feedback system where in beef is a basic factor and pork and chicken are substitute factors. We employ two methods: spectral analysis and optimal control model. The spectral analysis, which is a well-known method to analyze cyclical fluctuation, is used to determine the system structure of the beef economy. The optimal control model with "state space representation, " which is a basic theory to analyze the linear systems, is applied to the simulation tests of the system. Results of spectral analysis show that there are definite interdependent fluctuations between factors with time lags. These evidences support the assumption that the beef economy should be regarded as a part of the whole system. The wholesale prices of beef turn out to be the most unstable factor in the meat economy. The quantity of beef import is not always determined by the balance in the supply and demand for beef, and had relatively little influence on price changes. Therefore, the present beef import system did not operate efficiently. Conclusions of the simulation analysis by the optimal control model suggest that the beef price as well as the system of the meat economy itself can be stabilized by the appropriate import policy and that drastic measures such as an embargo on the import of beef would have an adverse effect on stabilization of the meat economy system.
公開者 千葉大学園芸学部
コンテンツの種類 紀要論文 Departmental Bulletin Paper
DCMI資源タイプ text
ファイル形式 application/pdf
ISSN 0069-3227
NCID AN00142658
掲載誌情報 千葉大学園芸学部学術報告 Vol.34 page.111-163 (19841225)
情報源 The technical bulletin of Faculty of Horticulture, Chiba University
言語 日本語
著者版フラグ publisher

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